Paradise Gained. Paradise Lost.

"You may fool all the people some of the time, you can even fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time." (Abraham Lincoln)

I suppose it would be safe to assume President Lincoln never visited Sri Lanka.

In my posting on September 8, 2005 under the heading "Alliances... the bane of her existence" I wrote:

"Recipe for disaster? Who knows? The Sri Lankan electorate is perhaps one of the most complex electorates to comprehend. It is difficult to fathom whether they are guided by dreams, wishful thinking, vociferous rhetoric or realistic expectations.

Come November 18, the Sri Lankan populace did show what indeed drove their thinking. While the northern voters were prevented from voting by an "enforced boycott," the southern voters voted the incumbent Prime Minister, flanked by his leftist hardliner nationalists to the post of President with a majority of 0.29% of the popular vote. Great.

There is a school of thought that says it was the enforced boycott by the LTTE that prevented a Wickramasinghe win. They argue that a Wickramasinghe win would have been detrimental to the interest of the LTTE, as he has been able to trap the LTTE through the CFA and forced them to agree for a negotiated settlement within a federal structure -- a position that the international community has been constantly reminding the LTTE of. Agreed.

The strength of the CFA (in spite of its weaknesses) has been such that the LTTE has not been able to revert to war even in the face of divergent views. In spite of hiccups, it was a process that was moving forward, albeit at times three steps forward, and two back.

A Wickramasinghe win would make sure that the process would be carried forward, and that the LTTE would be trapped forever was not a fact lost on many.

A Rajapakse win on the contrary, given his association with hard-line nationalist forces and open criticism of the CFA with a pledge to unilaterally change the conditions of the agreement, and opposition to a federal solution gave the LTTE the much needed breathing space and window of opportunity. And that, the LTTE grabbed with both hands -- playing its cards perfectly, completely outdoing the naive electorate of the south.

No one can find fault with the LTTE. In spite of the political mud-slinging of a UNP-LTTE pact, reality is that the LTTE remains independent, pursuing its own agenda -- an agenda to carve out a separate state. Call it rational-actor or real-politic, every action of the LTTE is geared towards this objective and whether the rest of the country likes it or not, agrees with it or not, shall continue to manipulate circumstances for its own advantage. And thus, the enforced boycott which led to a Rajapakse victory.

In spite of the million and millions of rupees spent on free education, and in spite of having a literacy rate of over 92%, the ignorance of the southern electorate completely amuses me. In 1994, they voted for Chandrika Bandaranaike on a pro-peace platform. Her attempts for peace failed due to her own unique style of management (or mismanagement, should I say), and lack of courage to make bold decisions.

Then they continued to voter for a pro-war Chandrika and her governments, until the UNF government was elected once again on a pro-peace platform in 2002. This government which took some positive and meaningful steps towards peace and development was once again kicked out by the voters two years later, instead opting to put back into power the people they rejected two years earlier. Now, the voters have again voted for a candidate who has been a strong critic of the peace process, and under whose watch, given his promises for unilateral action with regard to the CFA, there is a high probability that hostilities might resume.

Even more alarming however, is the fact that a good eleven years of continued promises of election-goodies such as subsidies, welfare and overnight-jobs, the people still buy that junk.

That said, I must admit that Sri Lanka is a democratic system of governance. The beauty of democracy is that the people get what they deserve. The mindset of the Sri Lankan electorate is as fickle as a candle in the wind. And with their actions, they have made their futures just as fickle.

While the northern voters were prevented from voting, the south for the most part had a free hand to chose their candidate. And chose they did. It is up to those who chose to live through the consequences... As for the rest of us stakeholders, well... it's some tough soul-searching to do to...